Week 8: Trick or Treat?

Yesterday was Halloween, so you know what that means.  Kids across the country went out dressed up as everything under the sun, racking up candy left, right and center.  That means that you have a bunch of sugar addled kids running around, potentially disturbing your ability to watch football on this, the first Sunday in November. 

That simply will not do.  There's some quality games on, and I'm not talking about the Lions/Rams debacle that I'm sure will be stinking up FOX's early broadcast here, instead of an actual good game that people would want to watch.  Watching games like that for football fans is like a supermodel looking for the best weight loss pill: it's an option, but wholly unnecessary.  That said, it's a fact of life when you live in a town where a team continues to suck more than an industrial Hoover, that you're going to get stuck watching some extremely crummy games.

Last week was 9-4, making me 70-32 on the season.  It's interesting to note that the Bills are better when I pick against them (2-1) than when I pick them (1-3).  Since I'm sticking with Houston over them today, maybe they'll even their record going into the bye.  We'll see how that plays out, but with some big games on tap throughout the day, it looks like a great Sunday for football, IF you don't live here in St. Louis.

As always, I pick the games for fun, not money.  If you choose to follow my predictions, take note that I pick straight and not against the spread, and I am not responsible if you blow all your money on a "sure thing" only to watch a team like Tennessee score 48 points to break out of their losing skid, costing you the mortgage, and possibly parts of your anatomy.  That would be your own problem, not mine, and personally, to be honest, I'd probably laugh at you for being so stupid.  NEVER bet more than you can afford to lose.  That's why I don't bet money.

On to the games:

DENVER (+3.5) at Baltimore:  Who would have thought that the Broncos would get rid of Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton and be undefeated as the calendar flipped to November?  The Ravens are reeling a bit and are at a crossroads.  Their once proud defense has taken some hits lately, giving up points like they were still the old Cleveland Browns.  That negates the impressive development Joe Flacco and the offense has had.  I look for Denver to take a close one, mainly due to the inability of the Ravens to hold teams late.

Cleveland at CHICAGO (-14):  The Browns are atrocious.  If it wasn't for Roscoe Parrish fumbling a punt setting up a late field goal against the Bills, they would still be in the zero win club with Tennessee, Tampa Bay and St. Louis.  Now they go to Soldier Field where the Bears are playing well, and are primed to stomp the Browns into oblivion.  Who's next in the Browns QB line since Mangini pulled Quinn, and Anderson is on a short rope?  Will they become the first NFL team in decades to run the option and put Josh Cribbs back there full time?

HOUSTON (-3) vs. Buffalo:  Like I said, the Bills do better when I pick against them than when I pick them to win.  Ryan Fitzpatrick gets his second consecutive start for the concussed Trent Edwards.  The Bills defense has forced ten turnovers in the past two games.  If that trend continues, it might be a good day for Buffalo fans.  Terrell Owens needs to catch the ball instead of playing butterfingers (he leads the league with seven drops.)  Matt Schaub has already set a team record for TD passes in a season with 16, and Andre Johnson is going to give it a go with a bruised lung from all reports.  Buffalo will have to stop the run in order to have a chance.

Minnesota at GREEN BAY (-3):  Favre and the Vikings fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week when they had to go on the road in a hostile environment, both crowd wise and weather wise.  His two turnovers in the fourth quarter that led directly to 14 points were the difference in the ballgame.  While Favre had great success at Lambeau Field during his career, now he goes there as a 40 year old man in the jersey of a division rival.  The Vikings won against Green Bay about a month ago in the Metrodome, but I think it turns out a different story in Cheesehead land today.

San Francisco at INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5):  The Colts are rolling under new coach Jim Caldwell in the early part of the season.  The 49ers have had to battle some injuries and are replacing Shaun Hill with former first overall pick Alex Smith at quarterback.  Smith looked good, throwing three second half TD passes to Vernon Davis against Houston, but he also threw a pick in the final minute when they were driving for a potential tying field goal.  A rusty Smith versus a sharp Peyton Manning doesn't bode well for Mike Singletary's club, especially if it's a shootout.

Miami at NEW YORK JETS (-3):  One would have to think that the Jets will be better prepared defensively for the Wildcat formation that shredded them a few weeks ago on Monday Night Football.  That pretty much was the major factor that changed the complexion of the ballgame completely.  The Jets will suffer from the loss of Leon Washington, an explosive, versatile weapon, and Mark Sanchez will need to protect the ball better than he has in recent weeks in order to survive.  The Jets can't afford to lose this game, in the division, at home, if they want to stay in the race and in their fans good graces.

St. Louis at DETROIT (-4):  Nothing like a battle between a no win team and a one win team.  Maybe it will end in a tie.  I hope that the two CBS channels show two different games so I don't have to watch this.

Seattle at DALLAS (-10):  Tony Romo struggles at the new stadium it seems, but the Seahawks are up and down.  They blow out Jacksonville and get stomped by Arizona.  Now they are coming off a bye, but they are not nearly the team they were a few years ago.  I don't expect much from them against Dallas and their offensive weaponry.

Oakland at SAN DIEGO (-16.5):  There is not a whole lot to say about this one.  The Raiders have regressed badly since nearly stealing a win from the Chargers on Monday night in the opening week of the season, to the point that they were smashed 38-0 by the Jets last week.  San Diego is healthy, with plenty of weaponry , and is back on track after smashing the Chiefs last week at Arrowhead 37-7.  Philip Rivers has been lights out, and JaMarcus Russell has stunk it up.  This could be a blowout.

JACKSONVILLE (+3) at Tennessee:  The Jags smacked the Titans in the mouth earlier this season.  The Titans are 0-6 and are coming off a bye.  Now, conventional wisdom will tell you that winless and unbeaten teams coming off byes are 46-28-1 in recent years.  However, I'm not convinced that Vince Young can lead the Titans to a win.  Quarterback changes usually lead to conflict within teams, and especially with teams that struggle.  The Jags have been better of late, barring the Seattle debacle, and I expect them to keep Tennessee winless in a smash mouth contest.

Carolina at ARIZONA (-10.5):  The Cardinals have rebounded of late, and the Panthers continue to struggle mightily, turning the ball over four times against Buffalo.  John Fox hasn't said how long he'll keep with Jake Delhomme at quarterback either.  The defense will need to find a way to shut down Kurt Warner and company.  It doesn't look promising for the Panthers in the desert, as the NFC champs look to seize control of a watered down NFC West, especially with the 49ers playing the Colts.

New York Giants at PHILADELPHIA (+2):  The Giants have suddenly forgotten how to play defense, and that doesn't bode well against an Eagles big play offense that can score from anywhere on the field.  Donovan McNabb had a big game in his lone home start this season, and LeSean McCoy is fully capable of stepping in for the injured Brian Westbrook.  Eli Manning and his young receiver corps will have to step up and the run game tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will have to help control the clock.

Atlanta at NEW ORLEANS (-11):  The Saints are flying high, especially after last week's huge comeback over the Dolphins.  Trailing 24-3 right before the half, they outscored Miami 43-10 the rest of the game to score a 46-34 win and remain unbeaten.  Meanwhile, the Falcons struggled against Dallas, falling 37-21 and need a big game from Matt Ryan and company to try and stay in the NFC South race.  It might be tough sledding keeping up with the high powered New Orleans offense and Drew Brees however.  This could be a shootout and entertaining all around.

There you go with week eight and the contests on the slate.  Remember there is no Sunday night game this week due to game four of the World Series, which means that I can go to bed early since there will be no late game.  Enjoy the contests and we'll see you soon.

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