
Six months of hard work, dedication, battling through injuries, distractions, and the rest all boils down to one game. Sixty minutes is all that separates us from the crowning of this season's Super Bowl Champion. One team will walk off with the Lombardi Trophy, while the other will have come to the biggest game of the year only to fall short.
It's a marked contrast in franchise history, much like last year. The Colts have been in the Super Bowl before, three times. They lost Super Bowl III on the "guarantee" by one Joe Willie Namath, giving credibility to the Jets and the upstart AFL. They rallied two years later to win Super Bowl V on a field goal in the closing seconds by Jim O'Brien to beat the Dallas Cowboys in what was termed the "Blooper Bowl." Then of course, there was three years ago, when Peyton Manning and company defeated the Chicago Bears to get the "choke" tag off Manning.
On the flip side, the New Orleans Saints have never been to the Super Bowl. This is a team that didn't finish at .500 until 1979 after coming into the league in 1967. They've had only nine winning seasons in franchise history, the first of which wasn't until 1987. Their cumulative record as a franchise is a whopping 103 games below .500, even after winning 13 games this season. The team was so bad at one point that fans wore paper bags at home games and called the team the "Aints". Still, what's done is done and what's now is now.
Now that we're through all that, let's get into the heart of the matter, Super Bowl XLIV:
vs. 
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (16-2) vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (15-3):
Vegas oddsmakers have slotted this game as being an offensive shootout, setting the over/under at 56.5 with the Colts holding as five point favorites. There hasn't been much of a shift in the line even with the uncertain status of Dwight Freeney. Speaking of Freeney, NFL.com's Adam Schefter reports that Freeney missed practice today, but that the Colts expect him to play on Sunday. This is a game of powerful offenses, and mediocre to suspect defenses.
The Colts have lived and died by the passing game all season long, and I don't expect a major change in offensive theory going into the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is All-World at quarterback, throwing for 4515 yards and 34 touchdowns. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark both caught 100 balls for over 1000 yards and are key targets for Manning. Even without a bona fide number two wideout, Manning works the ball around. Pierre Garcon caught an AFC Championship Game record 11 balls, and Austin Collie sparked the Colts rally from a 17-6 deficit with a TD catch just before halftime to sink the Jets.
Gregg Williams, the defensive coordinator for the Saints, promises that his defense will hit Manning, much like they did to Brett Favre in the NFC Championship. If Williams thinks that blitzing Manning and trying to take questionable shots at him is going to be productive, he's in for a long afternoon. Manning is not easily rattled, and is the consummate professional at deciphering what a defense is trying to do in order to slow him down. He then adjusts, and makes life extremely difficult for the other team. Williams will relearn this lesson the hard way.
If the Colts can work the run game in and be even semi effective, the Saints are in a world of trouble as that opens up the play action game, and Manning is the best in the league at play action fakes. The Saints defense relies on mistakes and takeaways to keep teams off the board as evidenced by their ranking in yards allowed and points allowed per game (25th and 20th respectively.) Manning simply doesn't make a lot of mental errors, and that means New Orleans is going to have to score on basically every possession to stay competitive.
Defensively, the Colts are a bend but don't break defense (18th in yards allowed, but 8th in points.) The big key will be getting pressure on Drew Brees, and that comes from the defensive line. Raheem Brock, Robert Mathis and Freeney will need to take advantage of the ineffective tackles on the Saints offensive line, Matt Stinchcomb and Jermon Bushrod are susceptible to being beaten. The Colts will be starting a rookie corner opposite Kelvin Hayden, and a pass rush will be important to keep Brees from having all day to throw. If they can shut down the run early and make New Orleans one dimensional, expect things to get out of hand.
On the flip side, the Saints want to establish the run. They have three extremely talented running backs in Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. They've had success moving the ball on the ground, as evidenced by the fact that they were sixth in the league during the regular season. They were fourth throwing the ball and first in points. Brees did throw for 34 scores and hit on 70.6 of his throws, but he can be prone to turning it over, especially if he's pressured or hit. He put the ball on the ground ten times in 2009, not a stat you want to see from your quarterback.
The Saints have plenty of weapons should Brees have time to throw: seven different players caught at least 35 balls in the regular season. Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson are the big cogs in the pass game, and Jeremy Shockey is good in the middle of the field if he's healthy. That's a big question mark, as he has been seriously banged up the past few weeks. The Colts will try to neutralize those options with a variety of schemes in an effort to confuse Brees and take away the quick, short routes that the Saints make a living on.
Defensively, as I said, the Saints are opportunistic and thrive on takeaways. They forced 37 turnovers in winning their first thirteen games, but only 2 in their final three games, all losses. They forced seven takeaways in their two playoff wins, but let's be frank: they're lucky to even BE here. It took five Vikings turnovers, two of those in the red zone and an ill fated interception in the closing two minutes of regulation, PLUS two questionable replay calls in overtime to get them here. Manning will NOT turn the ball over five times. The Saints will NOT have lightning strike twice. If Williams insists on blitzing and trying to hit Manning, Manning will beat the blitz and hit for big gains all day long. They tried it against Favre, and he threw for over 300 yards in the NFC Championship.
OUTLOOK:
This game has shootout written all over it, but the key factors is what carries the day for one team over the other. Manning doesn't get rattled, the Colts don't turn the ball over a ton, and they have the ability to beat the blitz. The Saints defense is questionable at best, and have proved to be unsuccessful at stopping teams if they don't force turnovers. The Colts defense isn't great, but they do know how to keep teams off the board.
Brees and company will keep it close, but in the end, the "been there, done that" factor and too much Manning will be the difference in this one. The Colts take their second Super Bowl in four years and leave the Saints with nothing to hold a parade for but a second place finish.
INDIANAPOLIS 38, NEW ORLEANS 24
I said it last year and I'll say it again this year...bring back the Bud Bowl. Those were entertaining and way better than the crappy commercials we have now. One last thing...for the record,
I predicted last year's Super Bowl winner, and the score dead on. I don't expect to hit the score two years in a row, but I can brag about it anyway. Tune in and enjoy the final game of the 2009/10 season.